The Lithium-ion Automotive Market
| The market for Li-ion automotive batteries will be dominated by full hybrid applications in 2015, according to Dr. Anderman. |
Dr. Menahem Anderman, the president of Advanced Automotive Batteries, projects that the automotive <strong>lithium-ion market could reach $1.6 billion in 2015, up almost five-fold from $337M in 2012, propelled largely by a dramatic expanding upon for the use of lithium ion batteries in hybrid cars. The Forecast on Anderman’s work is that he will more than likely work wil work with OEM’s for battery makers and lithium producers.
According to the forecast, strong hybrid applications will account for 78% of the lithium market in 2015, reaching $1.26 billion—more than six times the 2012 figures of $196 million, which represents 58% of that proposed market. Dr. Anderman released his projections publicly during a presentation of his analysis of the appreciate proposition for automotive Li-ion batteries at the Advanced Automotive Battery & Ultracapacitor Conference (AABC) 2008, running in Tampa, Florida this week and has spiked a growth in lithium exploration.
The opportunity is in the high-volume strong hybrids showing the lithium sector We could have more than $1 billion by 2015, assuming no major rubber incident with Lithium-ion.
—Dr. Menahem Anderman
Lithium-ion batteries could also see strong growth in the upper end of the micro-hybrid market (stop-start with regenerative braking) and in mild hybrid applications, Anderman said. For micro hybrid applications, Li-ion faces competition from VRLA (lead-acid) batteries and VRLA-Ultracapacitor systems. Toyota, he famous has the most data on the life and performance data on a Li-ion pack for such an application, via the Toyota Intelligent Idling Stop System in the Vitz.
Hybrids lithium battery size and weight are attractive compared to the old Nickel batteries. The cost to power, to weight ratio is manageable and with introduction of vanadium to lithium technology, we will be able to get the power to weight ratio down even farther.
Suppressing impedance rise over life is necessary to enable OEMs to take advantage of the higher power and energy denseness of NiMH by spec’ing lower Wh batteries into applications. Cost parity with NiMH per kWh can be achieved at similar yield volumes if manufacturing yields are proven. Cost parity with NiMH per kW will be reached earlier, he said, so that for applications which are kW driven, Li-ion will become cost-competitive earlier.
Considering the rate of progress of Li-ion technology, lower cost per kWh enabled by lower cost material is likely in the longer term, provided the materials meet the life requirements. Future nickel cost—the key material cost driver for NiMH—is also an unknown factor.
Anderman is not bullish on the prospects of plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), at least based on the economics of it. Retrofitting an existent platform is not really attractive, based on annual fuel cost saving and the loss of cargo space, and designing new platforms for plug-ins is “strong to justify considering the questionable value proposition and the financial risks involved.” His assessment is that plug-ins with a 10-mile electric range using a blended outline make the most financial sense, even with gasoline prices reaching $8/gallon.